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Tomorrow is the start of my usual solo trip to Macau over the three-day New Year's holiday.

I've been doing this for 10 years, but three of those trips were to Seoul. I no longer have the energy to go all the way to Seoul in the freezing cold. Maybe it's because I'm getting older, but my next trip to Seoul is scheduled for late March.

This will also be using the usual ANA award ticket for Macau during the New Year's holidays.

Oh, it's almost time to enter for the 2021 January 9th (Sat) to 11th (Mon) (national holiday).

I always have a theme for my Macau trip.

What would happen if I flat bet 11,000 HKD?

I've stopped flat betting recently due to a decline in my winning rate, but for a long time, I was stingy and was able to "survive" from Macau because I used the "1,000 HKD flat bet" as my basic strategy. This strategy is based on believing in the law of large numbers, and because you keep betting 1,000 HKD at a time like a machine, it is less affected by mental ups and downs. Also, as long as your winning rate does not collapse, you will not suffer a big loss. You do not have to worry about how much to bet, and you can increase your winning rate a little by looking for human lines, and then you return home with 2 to 3 pieces floating, and that's it. Making this a flat bet of 10,000 HKD is just making one zero larger, and floating 2 to 3 pieces means winning 20,000 to 30,000 HKD, so it's a delusion that this is enough.

2. What would happen if you were restricted to large and small numbers?

Statistically, this strategy cannot be expected to survive, but it's a delusion of what would happen if you were a "traveler from Japan" who appeared for a moment in a place with continuity, such as a casino.

3. What would happen if you were restricted to Baccarat sums (tai) and pairs (toichi)?

The logic is the same as the large and small numbers. Once I start winning, I'd like to try 1 (even if it's limited to 5,000 HKD instead of 10,000), but I feel like if I add this kind of playfulness, the Macau gods will punish me. Mainlanders are very serious, and the average annual income of Macau people (currently 8.7 million yen) is also continuing to rise. The Macau gods are powerful.

This time, I want to increase my win rate above all else! I want to aim to break through the 50.0% barrier. In the last five consecutive expeditions, my win rate in baccarat and big and small has not exceeded the middle. I have survived some expeditions, but that was just because I managed to make it add up by betting up and fan tan. I can't go back to being a flat bettor unless I can earn a high win rate. In the first place, flat bettors are said to be unable to win, so I may not need to go back, but I want to decide for myself once I start winning.

September 2019: Win rate 34.7% (Baccarat 34.2%, Big and Small 35.4%) → Losing expedition

July 2019: Win rate 44.8% (Baccarat 63.2%, Big and Small 37.5%) → Survived

March 2019: Win rate 47.7% (Baccarat 75.0%, Big and Small 45.0%) → Survived

January 2019: Win rate 50.0% (Baccarat 33.3%, Big and Small 53.8%) → Survived

November 2018: Win rate 36.4% (Baccarat 36.9%, Big and Small 35.8%) → Losing expedition

It wasn't my first dream of the year, but in the new year, I had a dream in Macau where I had the ability to see 10 seconds ahead. Maybe my mind has finally gone mad. However, in baccarat, I can't win if the numbers are squeezed out slowly, and the results of big and small are already known inside the lid,

and roulette doesn't spin in 10 seconds. If my dream comes true, I would like to use my ability to prevent traffic accidents on the Great Friendship Road.

The weather looks good.

I'm off.

To be continued